Syria: From Conflict to Hope – The Path to Rebuilding and Reconciliation

The Syrian Civil War

The Arab Spring began in 2011, when social and political unrest swept across the Middle East and North Africa. It all started when Mohamed Bouazizi, a street seller in Tunisia, set himself on fire to protest the confiscation and harassment of his products by local authorities. This act of defiance sparked mass protests in Tunisia, which resulted in the ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

Inspired by the success of the Tunisian revolution, similar protests occurred across the region, including in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Syria. These movements sought to confront authoritarian regimes and advocate for greater political freedoms and social justice2. While its results varied in different countries, the Arab Spring was a significant period in the history of the region.

The Syrian protests against President Bashar al-Assad's administration began with demands for political reforms, increased freedoms, and an end to corruption. Arrests and torture of young people chanting revolutionary slogans sparked nonviolent rallies that quickly spread across the country. The government's brutal crackdown on protesters further aggravated the situation, leading to widespread unrest and eventually a full-blown civil war. The conflict has had a devastating impact on the Syrian people and the country as a whole.

The initial protests quickly turned into a full-blown civil war involving multiple factions and external powers. This complex conflict involved government forces, rebel groups, extremist organizations, and international players, all with their own agendas. The ensuing uproar caused widespread damage, a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, and the displacement of millions of Syrians within and across borders.

Key Players in the Conflict

The Assad government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, remained a key player in the Syrian conflict due to substantial support from powerful allies. Despite initial demands for Assad's resignation, his government managed to maintain control over significant areas of Syria with the help of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Russia's military intervention, including air strikes and advisors, played a key role in strengthening Assad's forces. Iran provided financial aid, military advisors, and fighters, while the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah sent fighters to support Assad's military efforts. However, after a long struggle, Assad eventually fell from power, leading to a significant change in Syria's political landscape.

During the Syrian conflict, many rebel factions developed, each with its own goals and affiliations. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) was one of the first and largest rebel factions, formed by defected soldiers and civilians who wanted to destroy the Assad dictatorship. They received assistance from many Western and Middle Eastern countries. Kurdish factions, including the YPG (People's Protection Units), also played an important role. They focused on establishing autonomous enclaves in northern Syria and protecting those areas from ISIS and other enemy forces. In addition, many other groups, especially Islamist factions such as Jabhat al-Nusra, contributed to the complex and divided environment of the Syrian uprising.

Under the instability of the Syrian conflict, ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) grew into a powerful and violent group. After establishing authority in Iraq, ISIS used the instability in Syria to expand their territory. They rapidly took control of wide areas, imposing their harsh interpretation of Islamic law and committing atrocities on a large scale. Their presence further exacerbated the situation, drawing worldwide attention and involvement. The group's brutal tactics and fanatic ideology not only escalated the violence but also created a humanitarian crisis, displacing millions and causing enormous suffering among the Syrian people.

The Syrian conflict involved many international actors, each with its own goals and interests. In an effort to oppose the Assad government as well as extremist groups such as ISIS, the United States gave military support and training to several rebel organizations. Turkey supported some rebel groups and conducted military operations against the YPG (People's Protection Units) because it was concerned about Kurdish forces close to its border. Opposition parties received financial and military support from Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Despite the lack of direct military involvement, European countries sanctioned the Assad government and gave aid to individuals affected by the fighting. The complex network of international engagement made it more difficult to end the conflict and bring peace to Syria.

Major Turning Points in the War

The use of chemical weapons during the Syrian crisis sparked international outrage and condemnation. Reports of chemical attacks, such as the 2013 Ghouta attack, highlighted the brutality of the conflict and civilian suffering. These attacks, which used sarin gas and chlorine, caused countless casualties and severe injuries. The international community, including the United Nations and numerous human rights organizations, condemned these actions and demanded responsibility. The use of chemical weapons not only exacerbated the humanitarian disaster, but also prompted increased international involvement and measures to prevent future tragedies.

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, emerged in the midst of the Syrian crisis and quickly took over large parts of both Syria and Iraq. At its peak, ISIS imposed a strict regime of control, imposing a government that included severe brutality and a rigid adherence to Islamic law. But over time, a mix of domestic and foreign initiatives weakened the group. With the help of multinational coalitions and persistent military offensives by Syrian and Iraqi forces, ISIS had lost most of its territory by 2019. ISIS continues to launch insurgent attacks and maintain a presence in the region, posing a threat even after losing territory.

Russia launched a major military operation in Syria in September 2015 with the intention of aiding the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The action came at a critical moment when Assad's forces were fighting both ISIS and rebel groups. Assad's military efforts were greatly aided by Russian airstrikes targeting ISIS positions and opposition strongholds. Private military contractors such as the Wagner Group and military advisers were also deployed as part of the intervention. In addition to strengthening Assad's grip on power, Russia's intervention increased Moscow's influence in the Middle East.

The Syrian conflict saw a major turning point in 2016 with the siege of Aleppo. Syrian government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, launched a significant assault to retake the city from rebel factions after months of fierce fighting. Eastern Aleppo, which had been ruled by rebels for years, was fully retaken as a result of the siege. This victory was interpreted as a major setback for the opposition and evidence of the regime's consolidation of power. Thousands of civilians were caught in the crossfire, and many were forced to leave their homes, resulting in a catastrophic humanitarian impact. A turning point in the war was the fall of Aleppo, which showed how determined the regime was to retake vital areas.

Hypothetical Scenarios Leading to Assad Downfall

These hypothetical scenarios highlight the various ways in which Assad's downfall could have unfolded, each driven by different internal and external dynamics.

Internal Coup: An internal coup is a scenario that could result in Assad's downfall. High-ranking officials may plan to seize power as a result of discontent within the regime's inner circle, fueled by frustration with the long-running conflict and economic crises. Prominent political and military leaders could turn against Assad in such a coup, resulting in his overthrow and the installation of a new administration that promises stability and reform.

International Pressure: Increasing international pressure could be another possibility. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation and concerted efforts by major international powers could seriously undermine Assad's authority. If the international community – including the US, the EU and regional players such as Turkey – collectively demands his departure and supports opposition forces, Assad could step down, preventing more suffering and potential military intervention.

Military Defeat: The third possible outcome is a resounding military defeat. If rebel forces – possibly with greater assistance from foreign allies – are able to mount an effective offensive against key government strongholds, Assad's forces could disintegrate. If a prolonged military campaign seizes large areas and tilts the scales of power, Assad could be forced to leave or surrender, which would mean the end of his regime.

Global powers and diplomatic agreements will play a key role in determining Syria's fate after Assad's departure. The primary international participants include the United States, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. The United States seeks a smooth political transition and an inclusive government, while Russia seeks to protect its strategic interests in the region. Turkey continues to exert influence on Syria's political landscape, particularly among Kurdish factions, while Iran seeks to maintain its influence through allied militias. Diplomatic efforts are aimed at creating ceasefire agreements and ensuring international support for Syria's rehabilitation. These initiatives include economic aid, diplomatic recognition, and human rights protection, with the goal of stabilizing the region and preventing future conflict.

Humanitarian Impact

The humanitarian situation in Syria is dire, with terrible consequences for the local population. Since the conflict began, about 230,000 civilians have died, including thousands of children and women. The conflict has resulted in around 7.2 million Syrians being internally displaced in search of safety within the country, while approximately 6.2 million have fled as refugees to neighbouring countries. The crisis has resulted in acute humanitarian needs, with an estimated 16.7 million people requiring aid. More than 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and nearly 12.9 million people are food insecure, reflecting the grave and ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Syria's economy has collapsed dramatically, dropping by more than 60% since 2010. The Syrian pound has plummeted, trading at over 3,000 SYP to the dollar, compared to roughly 50 SYP before the war. This has resulted in hyperinflation, with consumer prices skyrocketing and fundamental items becoming unaffordable for many. External factors, such as the Lebanese financial crisis, exacerbated the collapse by trapping Syrian funds and putting more burden on the economy.

The destruction of infrastructure has been widespread, leading to significant disruption to vital services such as healthcare, education and transport. Cities such as Aleppo, Homs and Raqqa have suffered infrastructure destruction, affecting the quality of life for millions of people2. The violence has also had a significant impact on the agricultural sector, resulting in food instability and greater dependence on imports. The combined economic and infrastructure destruction has left Syria in a dire state, with recovery efforts hampered by continued fighting and inadequate resources.

There are many long-term problems in rebuilding Syria. In addition to significant damage to vital infrastructure, including transportation, healthcare and energy, the economy has shrunk by 85%. The country's agriculture and oil industries, previously important sources of income, have suffered greatly. The humanitarian catastrophe is further compounded by the fact that millions of Syrians are still displaced domestically and as refugees. In addition to fighting corruption, the incoming administration must place high priority on infrastructure development, national healing and attracting foreign investment. The recovery process is a long and complex one that requires continued international support and cooperation.

Lessons Learned from the Conflict

In Syria, authoritarianism has had significant and long-term effects. Bashar al-Assad's regime has committed numerous human rights violations as a result of the government's use of brutal repression as a means of maintaining power. This repression is centered on the Syrian government's prison system, where there have been claims of systematic torture, sexual abuse, and forced disappearances. Despite the regime's assurances that torture is illegal, detainees have endured brutal treatment and severe physical and psychological injuries.

The limits of violent repression have become apparent as the conflict has evolved. The world community has condemned the regime's actions, and efforts to hold it accountable have gained momentum. The UN International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) has documented these violations and continues to collect evidence for future accountability trials. The continued suffering experienced by relatives of victims, as well as the psychological impact of forced disappearances, demonstrate the destabilizing nature of such authoritarian techniques. 

The situation in Syria underscores the larger lesson that authoritarian regimes, despite their attempts at brutal repression, ultimately face major obstacles in maintaining control and legitimacy. The involvement of the international community is crucial in promoting accountability and justice in combating human rights violations.

Foreign action in Syria has had both positive and detrimental consequences. On the positive side, foreign intervention has provided crucial military support to several factions, helping tip the balance of power and preventing any one party from gaining complete dominance. For example, Russian and Iranian support has helped strengthen the Assad regime, but US and Turkish support has benefited rebel forces. In addition, international aid has played a vital role in meeting humanitarian needs by providing vital supplies and aid to millions of displaced Syrians.

But foreign intervention also has many disadvantages. The involvement of many international countries has prolonged the fighting, making it more complex and challenging to end it. As many factions compete for power and influence, the presence of foreign forces and militias has also contributed to increased bloodshed and instability. In addition, there have been allegations of exploitation and interference as foreign intervention has often been motivated by geopolitical goals rather than the welfare of the Syrian people.

Although international involvement has had some positive effects, such as military aid and humanitarian relief, it has also worsened the conflict and thwarted efforts for a peaceful conclusion. Syria's future will depend on the international community's ability to cooperate in the search for a lasting solution, as the long-term effects of these operations are still unknown.

For Syria to experience long-term peace and stability, it is essential that the underlying causes of poverty, inequality, and ethnic conflicts are addressed. Creating economic opportunities and improving living standards for all individuals is crucial because poverty and economic inequality often foster discontent and can lead to instability. To combat inequality and create a more just and equitable society, it is important to guarantee fair access to resources, healthcare, and education.

With many groups fighting for legitimacy and power, ethnic tensions have played a major role in the Syrian conflict. Building mutual trust and promoting inclusiveness among different populations can help bridge differences. Resolving these underlying issues can create a more robust and cohesive society, which will reduce the likelihood of future conflicts and promote sustainable development.

What’s Next for Syria?

Syria's economy and infrastructure have been heavily damaged, making reconstruction an enormous task. The need to support these initiatives to guarantee the Syrian people a stable and prosperous future has been acknowledged by the international community. To deliver humanitarian relief such as food, water, shelter and medical aid, organisations such as the United Nations and other NGOs are working relentlessly. The UN has underlined the need for an inclusive political transition and called for immediate political negotiations to ensure a peaceful future.

To meet immediate needs and establish the framework for long-term recovery, international assistance is essential. Rebuilding vital services such as healthcare, education and transport is the main goal, as well as promoting economic growth to raise living standards and provide employment. To ensure that help reaches the most vulnerable and that reconstruction activities are successful and long-term, collaboration between domestic and foreign partners is essential.

The prospects for a democratic transition in Syria are complex and multifaceted. Although the recent ouster of Bashar al-Assad has raised the prospects for reform, there are still major hurdles to overcome. The G7 and other members of the international community have expressed their support for a transition to an inclusive, legitimate government. However, things are more nuanced on the ground.

One of the main concerns is the power struggle between different factions. Different international powers support groups such as the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which have different views on Syria’s future. Another important player is the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). These conflicting relationships and objectives make the path to a stable and cohesive administration difficult.

The importance of a peaceful transition and the need for cooperation from all parties to maintain stability have been underlined by the UN Special Envoy for Syria. However, the situation is still volatile and there is a real possibility of more conflict.

Syria will play a major role in Middle Eastern geopolitics in the future, especially after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's government. Iran has always viewed Syria as a strategic ally, providing support to organizations such as Hezbollah and acting as an important conduit for Iranian influence in the Levant. With Assad's overthrow, Iran's regional dominance faces a serious challenge, which could alter the regional power balance and alliances.

Moreover, Syria's location – its borders touch Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey – makes it a key player in regional geopolitics. The continued existence of some armed groups such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has further complicated the situation. Syria's geopolitical importance is further highlighted by the fact that the US and Russia, among others, still have stakes in the country.

Regional and international powers will be closely watching Syria's ability to stabilize and rebuild as it negotiates its post-conflict fate. Syria's ability to stabilize the region or fuel violence will have a major impact on the geopolitical environment of the Middle East as a whole.